RISK RISING MODESTLY

Changes in risk-real or perceived-has been at the crux of every major economic and financial dislocation. Most recently, the fall in prices of financial instruments leading up to the 2008 worldwide credit crisis and subsequent 2009 price recovery began with a whiff of credit depression and later, relaxation.

Even for periods between crisis and recession, political and self-inducing events can place valuations and prices under strain, forcing an upward revaluation of cost of capital.  As such, equity investors must continuously monitor change in the financial markets risk profile. If the perception of risk is increasing, even if cash flows and credit health are currently strong, one should expect the prices of financial instruments to decline.

This risk to cash flows is incorporated and is the purpose of the cost of equity capital.

Current political tensions have slightly elevated the risk to free cash flows, causing us to raise our cost of equity capital by 15 basis points for all U.S.-based companies. From China to the Mid-East, the re-valuation of risk metrics in our models is apparent; however, an over-reaction to events  is also not justified given the factors we look at. We do not carry direct investments in the most effected countries.

Included in the factors we assess when assigning a cost of capital score for the sovereign risk metric include terrorism, inflation history, fear of nationalization, hunger, poverty, and corruption. Needless to say, most of these metrics pointed to the negative outcome we are witnessing today.

The groundswell that began in Egypt is empowering citizens around the globe, and while it has not spread to the most industrialized nations, it would be naive to assume, given large budget deficits in U.S. States and Federal government, there could not be some backlash here as well. Pensions and rising costs (education, food, and clothing) could spur scattered protests and widespread news coverage.

At present such risks are contained, but one which could impact both the current level of consumer confidence as well as capital decisions. And while a 15 basis point increase will not result in a shift to our current portfolio, it does serve to ratchet up the required return for making equity investments.

Inflation is also a weighty factor in the cost of capital, entering into both the risk free rate as well as other metrics.

It is difficult to find a reporting firm that has not been negatively impacted by the rise in input costs, with warnings of a continuing negative impact to come. In China, some companies are reporting wages are rising as much as 40% for factory workers. We currently assess a cost of capital for Chinese companies 75 basis points greater than Canadian companies given similar free cash flows and credit health. US firms receive a 25 basis point mark-up over Canadian firms.

Here in the U.S., yields are rising due to commodity cost pressure and, according to Federal Reserve data, lower foreign purchases of U.S. bonds. Hedge funds are also increasing their leverage, according to Federal Reserve data which tracks borrowing against bonds not tied to the US Government, as these funds attempt to leverage up.

While our credit models continue to indicate improvements to free cash flow, we are not seeing a strengthening in credit for the S&P Industrials over the past 2 quarters, which we can tie directly to the outlays for share repurchases.

All in all, we cannot be so blind as to ignore recent happenings, as is captured by our various model metrics, including credit spreads and political tensions. We see that yields on third world debt and credit default swaps have been rising as well, while the latter remain steady for U.S. fixed income instruments, perhaps a result of Federal Reserve policy and hedge fund buying.

With cost of capital having slightly risen, one would expect investors to pay closer attention to cash flow and credit. This has not generally been the case over the past year and a half, as evidenced by the tightness of junk bond yield spreads.

Kenneth S. Hackel, CFA

Share on Facebook

A review of EDGAR filings, the SEC system for which public companies transmit financial information, finds over 90% of reporting companies defining free cash flow as operating cash flow minus capital expendituresExample:

MORRIS TOWNSHIP, N.J., January 28, 2011– Honeywell (NYSE: HON) today announced full-year 2010 sales increased 8% to $33.4 billion vs. $30.9 billion in 2009. Earnings per share (proforma) were up 12% to $3.00 versus $2.69 in the prior year, excluding the unfavorable impact of the pension mark-to-market adjustment. Reported earnings per share for 2010 were $2.59 versus $2.05 in the prior year. Free cash flow (cash flow from operations less capital expenditures) was a record $3.6 billion (cash flow from operations of $4.2 billion).

Source: Honeywell 8K

Unfortunately, corporate financial reporting does not often provide investors with an accurate assessment of the real free cash flows, and hence adjustments to reported financial statements are required. Free cash flow should be defined as the maximum amount of cash an entity could distribute to shareholders without impairing its rate of growth or through return of capital.

Hence, it is up to the analyst to reclassify those financing and investing activities which are more appropriately operating activities and, as such, would provide (potential) investors with a more realistic indication of the true free cash flow generating capacity of the enterprise. This is true even though classification of a particular activity is prescribed or generally accepted, as we see in the examples below.

Example:

For “payments to noncontrolling interests”, to whom as long as they continue to operate profitable operations may be due cash, payments are classified as financing activities while the purchase of the noncontrolling interests would be classified as an investing activity. Unfortunately, for investors who fail to reclassify the payments to the operating activity section, under the common definition of free cash flow, the reader of the financial statement is left with the impression of exaggerated, and incorrect, free cash flows.

For instance, AmSurg Corporation (AMSG), in partnership with physicians, operates surgery centers, where the partnerships may result in cash payments due the minority owners. Such operating cash payments which may result from profitable locations are as much a cost of doing business as payment of salaries or taxes. In common practice, the company classifies these outflows as Financing Activities, the payments representing “outflows or other distributions to owners”, as set forth under FAS 95.

Under the microscope of free cash flow, where free cash represents the income to shareholders of the common stock, the analyst would need to deduct such outflows, which in AmSurg’s case, is sizeable, accounting for over half of reported Cash Flow from Operating Activities (see below). To do otherwise would seriously misrepresent free cash flows as these payments could not be given to shareholders without impairing capital.

To conclude that AmSurg had free cash flows of $214 MM (we add sale of PPE in the Statement shown) would be incorrect. The analyst would need to reclassify the $130.9 MM as an operating activity from which capital spending and proceeds from PPE would be factored, leaving free cash flow as $83.1 MM, or 37% less than would normally be defined.

At CT Capital, as explained in Security Valuation and Risk Analysis, we also account for overspending in discretionary areas, so that, in the case of AmSurg, we would add $2.7 MM back to free cash flow to account for overspending in its cost of goods sold, which could represent overspending of many items in the production and sales process. We would also deduct half of the share repurchases, or $6.3MM, which represents that amount of cash necessary to maintain a steady share count over the prior year. Share based compensation has a real cost. The other half of the buyback would in fact represent free cash flow. Thus free cash flow for the year would approximate $79.5MM, which would depict the maximum distributable cash available for shareholder distribution, or free cash flow.

When making adjustments to published financial statements, the analyst must also adjust or normalcy of one-time (extraordinary) payments or events. Also, taxes, interest and dividends a firm would classify as an investing or financing activity should most often be melded into operating activities. This will also allow for better comparability.

AmSurg Corp.
Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows
Years Ended December 31, 2009, 2008 and 2007
(In thousands)

Exhibit 2

In the Statement of Cash Flows for Boeing (BA), we would reclassify both the “Payments to noncontrolling interests” and the “payments on guarantees” to the operating activity section, thereby reducing free cash flows. Payments on guarantees represent the impact and success of the firm’s operations, including its ability and technical skills in the manufacturing process as well as their ability to provide services promised, and should therefore be considered operating, not financial or investing activities. Payment on guarantees would be considered a reversal of profits, which is an operating activity under the indirect method.

The Boeing Company and Subsidiaries

Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows

Additional disclosure: CT Capital is long AMSG for client portfolios

Share on Facebook