June 30, 2020 Investment Review and Outlook
June 30, 2020, Investment Review
A WING AND A PRAYER
Beginning Comment
If a (bat)wing triggered the health and financial crisis, it might take prayer to get us out, as a vaccine is no sure thing given flu shots have been around for 75 years, yet upwards of 60,000 Americans still die of it each year[1]. In the sang-froid world where CT Capital operates, invocation may follow the process, not be an integral aspect of it. Financial decisions must ground on the skills of firm executives and the attendant response of the buying public.
So, given we have a slim idea as to when an effective COVID vaccine might become available, we operate under the condition that normality will be restored. Since a timeline is a guessing game we do not play, we must heavily weight the natural ability of the firms in the portfolio absent governmental aid until the recovery ensues. The April thru mid-June period in which the account showed outperformance against both indexes for the year—after a healthy 2019— shows how quickly events can turn.
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[1] McKinsey writes the number of reported COVID deaths to be well underestimated. See https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/risk/our-insights/covid-19-implications-for-business?cid=other-eml-alt-mip-mck&hlkid=29f0e15f26f24962b86688c0f90319c7&hctky=2672065&hdpid=0a24bf6c-15ec-4e50-9709-381e0f5b160a
